Why do covid deaths surge in areas that do mass-vaccinations?

How to think about this and similar issues. I'm applying the principles explained in Scott Adams' book Loserthink

https://twitter.com/MConceptions and https://twitter.com/covid19crusher have posted a lot of graphs that show countries that get huge spikes in deaths after covid that start soon after vaccinations began. I'll go through the thinking process about how to think about why this might be and what data to look for, so that you don't think like an "expert" ( = a complete moron who appears in media to be wrong about a particular subject).

First only list all possible (even seemingly impossible) reasons behind this. Try hard to just brainstorm to get new ideas instead of getting critical now. Get into the mindset that there is a reason that you haven't though of:

First 4 general possibilities:

1) It's just a coincidence. This should always be first on the list.

2) There is a third variable that causes both covid deaths and vaccinations.

3) Vaccinations directly or indirectly cause covid deaths.

4) Covid deaths cause vaccinations

5) Few covid deaths cause vaccinations that then don't stop when spread is increasing again.

See how these 4 possibilities turned into 5! That is what happens when you start thinking about all ways a correlation might have occurred.

Possible example explanations:

(#) = from which general type above

6) (1) New more aggressive SARS-CoV-2 variants spread all across the globe at the same time as the vaccines are ready. Both virus mutations and vaccines simple took the same time to happen.

7) (2) General panic in media and from authorities make people scared and sick, so they both die after covid, while they also rush to get vaccinated.

8) (2) Vaccine pushers deliberately cause more covid spread and death somehow to sell more vaccines.

9) (2) There is a strong correlation between countries who have a population very susceptible to covid and the countries who are good at getting out vaccines.

10) (3) Vaccinated people get more covid deaths than unvaccinated people.

11) (3) Vaccinated people spread the virus more than unvaccinated people.

12) (3) Non-vaccinated people also care less about spread when the most vulnerable are vaccinated.

13) (3) Vaccinated people help more aggressive variants of SARS-CoV-2 to dominate, instead of more benign variants.

14) (3) The vaccination events are mass spreading events from which the covid spreads more than people's normal lives.

15) (3) The vaccinations are a huge burden on the health care system, so people aren't treated in time or not as well as before the vaccinations started. Note: might be for heart problems that have nothing to do with covid, that the patient just happen to also have, or another health problem that increases the risk of getting severe covid.

16) (3) The vaccination campaign makes media, health care workers and the public distracted from nutrition, sleep and health

17) (4) When the covid deaths starts to climb in an area, people and health care providers become more eager to speed up the vaccinations.

18) (4) When future increase in covid deaths is expected, vaccines are pushed.

19) (5) As Geert Vanden Bossche and many others have pointed out, it is not a good idea to vaccinate during an epidemic in the area. So maybe the vaccinations were on hold until the covid deaths were low and the authorities thought it was over, but then an unexpected natural fluctuation increased the spread again, and at that time it was politically impossible to stop the vaccination program.

20) (5) Vaccine pushers want the vaccines to be successful, so they want the vaccines to be scarce (people love things they can't get), and then also not given to them to be given until the covid death would go down any anyway. But it takes time from decision until the vaccinations are in people bodies, and at that time the trend had changed due to other reasons.

That was the hard part, and below I'll do preliminary speculations on the hypotheses above. So called plausibility theories:

(1) A lot of countries that haven't been mass vaccinating have not had spikes unlike every massively vaccinating country. But in combination with (6) that the aggressive virus variants appeared at vaccination time and (9) that people who live in a very "pharmaceutical society" are both more susceptible to covid and more likely to have big vaccination programs fast.

(3) (10) All the data we have so far says that vaccinated people die 50-95% less from covid than the unvaccinated ones, and even if there is a higher risk of getting severe covid the first week after getting the vaccination, these are too few people compared to the ones who get improved immunity thanks to vaccines to explain the increase in covid deaths so (10) is not true. In 1-5 years time, vaccinated people might die more easily from the new variants, but no data suggests that yet.

(7) There is convincing evidence that media fear mongering, masks and lockdowns cause people to be sick and afraid of hospitals. See for example this "Politics of lockdown, masks and covid19 (with Denis Rancourt, Phd)" https://www.bitchute.com/video/vokbdLIauWm3/ where Rancourt argues that it's the fear-porn that caused almost all the excess respiratory virus deaths. And I think no one argues against that covid fear causes vaccinations. But has the fear-mongering been turned up at the time of the vaccinations? I think so, but I don't think this is the main driver of yet another covid death spike.

8) It's likely that vaccine pushers knowingly or by convenient mistakes make decisions to help the spread and increase the mortality of covid. Health care staff might not care as much about people arriving with severe covid if they had refused to take a vaccine. It's easy to imagine an overworked doctor who thinks that everyone who doesn't take the vaccine is a threat to society spend more time thinking about how to rescue a cancer patient instead of that antivaxxer covid patient. Big pharma criminals using machines to spread viruses to sell more vaccines is possible, but seasonality and the other ways to indirectly make people more covid sick seem more likely.

(11) (12) I argue it's likely that vaccinated people spread the virus worse than the unvaccinated. They are less careful and the protection the vaccine gives make them feel well despite having a smaller infection of the virus, so they spread the virus to the vulnerable. Unvaccinated people focus more on staying healthy before being around the elderly, and their immune system have a more complete defence against the virus and will clean it out more completely as long as they are feeling well.

(13) A study from Israel showed that vaccinated people had a higher ratio of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 than non-vaccinated covid positives, so many vaccinated do increase the spread of new more aggressive variants compared to the more benign variants, but no data yet on if there is more spread of the new variants in absolute numbers.

(14) Images from the Indian subcontinent show huge vaccination events with bad ventilation and a lot of people susceptible to covid packed together. These are likely mass spreading events, but this does not explain other countries without this problem. But getting the vaccine and the actual virus at the same time is the worst. Still: We can't see that it's the people getting the jab that is dying en masse, but they might get the jab and vaccine, and then spread an aggressive variant virus they picked up from vaccinated health care workers to people who then die.

(15) (16) Spending health care resources and attention in the public and authorities on vaccinations must have some negative effects, especially in countries that actually do early treatments. Compare with Panama who have gone all in on ivermectin instead, and their covid deaths and spread have collapsed.

(17) Increases in covid deaths seems to arrive after the vaccinations started, but after that it is also likely that people get more eager to then get the vaccination amid increasing deaths.

But then we have Lebanon between mass vaccination Israel and Turkey.

And mass vaccination countries in South America compared to the others:

(18) It is unlikely that any of the health authorities around the world managed to predict that there would come another wave of covid deaths AND therefore roll out vaccines at that time. They just wanted to the vaccines out as fast as possible, while possibly also wanting the vaccines to appear scarce so that people want them.

(19) There is a possibility that some people in the agencies in some countries knew about the Geert-problem and therefore deliberately worked slow to delay the vaccine distribution until there was less spread, but then they were wrong about that the spread would restart stronger again due to (13) more aggressive variants.

(20) It's possible that the authorities tried to time the vaccination to the projected natural decline in spread, but failed consistently.



Some memes

I am sure I’ve missed some possible explanations and maybe got some things wrong, and I know I’m missing a lot of supporting facts. Let me know!

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Varför ökar covid-döden i områden som gör massvaccinationer?

Hur man tänker angående detta och liknande frågor. Jag tillämpar de principer som förklaras i Scott Adams bok Loserthink/Förlorartänk

https://twitter.com/MConceptions och https://twitter.com/covid19crusher har postat en hel del diagram som visar länder som får enorma toppar i dödsfall efter covid som börjar strax efter att vaccinationerna börjat. Jag går igenom tankeprocessen om hur man kan tänka kring detta och vilka data man ska titta efter, så att du inte tänker som en "expert" (en fullständig idiot som uppträder i media för ha fel om ett specifikt ämne).

Lista först alla möjliga (och till synes omöjliga) anledningar till detta. Försök att endast brainstorma för att få nya idéer istället för att bli kritiska vid denna punkt. Tänk på att det finns en anledning som du inte kommit på!

Första fyra generella möjligheterna:

1) Det är bara en slump. Detta bör alltid vara först på din lista.

2) Det finns en tredje variabel som orsakar både covid-död och vaccinationer.

3) Vaccinationer orsakar direkt eller indirekt covid-död.

4) Dödfall efter covid orsakar vaccinationer

5) Få covid-döda leder till vaccinationer som inte slutar när spridningen ökar igen.

Se hur dessa 4 möjligheter blev 5! Det är vad som händer när du börjar tänka på alla sätt en korrelation kan ha uppkommit.

Specifika exempel på möjliga förklaringar

(#) = från vilken generell typ ovan

6) (1) Nya mer aggressiva SARS-CoV-2-varianter sprids över hela världen samtidigt som vaccinerna är klara. Både virusmutationer och vacciner tog samma tid.

7) (2) Allmän panik i media och myndigheter gör människor rädda och sjuka, så de dör mer även efter covid, men efterfrågan på vaccinationer ökar också.

8) (2) De som förorder vaccin orsakar medvetet mer covid-spridning och död på något sätt för att sälja mer vaccin.

9) (2) Det finns en stark korrelation mellan länder som har en befolkning som är mycket mottagliga för covid och de länder som är bra på att få ut vacciner.

10) (3) Vaccinerade får fler dödsfall än ovaccinerade.

11) (3) Vaccinerade personer sprider viruset mer än ovaccinerade.

12) (3) Även icke-vaccinerade människor bryr sig mindre om spridning när de mest utsatta vaccinerats.

13) (3) Vaccinerade människor hjälper mer aggressiva varianter av SARS-CoV-2 att dominera, istället för mer godartade varianter.

14) (3) Vaccinationstillfällena är massspridningshändelser från vilka covid sprider sig mer än normalt liv.

15) (3) Vaccinationerna är en stor börda för hälso- och sjukvården, så människor behandlas inte i tid eller inte lika bra som innan vaccinationerna startade. Obs: kan vara t ex hjärtproblem som inte har något att göra med covid som patienten bara råkar ha, eller ett annat hälsoproblem som ökar risken för att bli svår covid som förblir obehandlat.

16) (3) Vaccinationskampanjen gör att media, vårdpersonal och allmänheten distraheras från näringslära, sömn och hälsa

17) (4) När dödsfallet börjar klättra i ett område blir människor och vårdgivare mer angelägna om att påskynda vaccinationerna.

18) (4) När framtida ökning av covid-döden förväntas, så görs fler vaccinationer.

19) (5) Som Geert Vanden Bossche och många andra har påpekat är det inte en bra idé att vaccinera under en pågående epidemi i området. Så kanske vaccinationerna försenades medvetet av folk på myndigheterna tills de trodde smittspridningen avslutats, men då ökade igen av en oväntad naturlig fluktuation spridningen, och vid den tidpunkten var det politiskt omöjligt att stoppa vaccinationsprogrammet.

20) (5) Vaccinsförespråkare vill att vaccinerna ska lyckas, så de vill att vaccinerna ska vara svåra att få tillgång till (människor älskar saker som de inte kan få) och sedan inte ges till dem förrän den covid-dödsfallen ändå skulle gå ner. Men det tar tid från beslutet tills vaccinationerna är i människokroppar, och vid den tiden hade trenden förändrats till det värre av andra skäl.